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A model of your business

Enter your revenue and the kind of business, and the model estimates the rest. Correct the numbers you know: they become yours and the model never changes them. If your numbers do not add up, it shows where and asks which one to recalculate. You see at once what you earn, where the cash goes over the next year and what changes if you raise the price, grow the flow of clients or raise money.

Time
5 min
You need
Your revenue, even roughly. The rest if you know it
Sign-up
Not needed
Status
Prototype
Version
0.5 · 17.10.2026

This is a prototype and I am still testing it. If the model proves clear, it will replace three money tools: the cash forecast, the price scenario and the runway.

1. Your business

Start with your revenue and the kind of business. The model estimates the numbers below for such a business: not industry norms, a start for you to correct.

All sales in a year, without VAT. A rough figure is fine: the model sizes the rest from it.

What you do

How clients pay
  • yours a number you set. The model never changes it.
  • worked out the model worked it out from other numbers; the line under the field says which.
  • estimate an estimate for such a business. Correct it if you know better.

If your numbers do not add up, the model corrects nothing by itself: it shows where and asks which one to recalculate. Press the mark by a field to keep a number as yours or release it.

Your numbers: 0 of 16

The main numbers

What one sale brings on average. For a contractor, the average contract.
How many times a month people buy from you. Four contracts a year is a third of a contract a month.

Worked out from revenue and the average sale.

How much the price is above what one sale costs you: subcontractors, materials, plant hire, site costs. The work costs 88 and the contract is 100: a markup of about 13.6%, and 12 of every 100 is left.

Of every €100 of revenue, €12 is left after the cost of the sale; one sale costs you €1,320,000 on average.

The office, estimators, salaried site managers, the yard, services and your own pay. They stay when there is less work.
Before tax and loan payments. It can be negative.

Worked out from revenue, the markup and fixed costs.

Where clients come from

If you win one tender in five, the conversion rate is 20%.
Tenders you price and enquiries: invitations to tender, calls, requests from the website.

Worked out from sales and the conversion rate.

Cash

Only money you can pay with.
From the certificate or invoice to the money in the account. 0 if they pay at once.
Growth and the team: the price of a lead and hiring

Used when you grow the flow of clients: what new leads cost and when you need new people.

Advertising, or the estimator’s time to price one more tender. Counted only when leads grow.
Including taxes and what they need to work.

2. What you want

The price is almost always the strongest lever: a higher price goes straight to profit. But some customers may go elsewhere, or you win fewer tenders. Move the price and see how many you can lose and still earn as much as now.

Price +2%: profit if some customers leave

€5.0K€10.0K€15.0K€20.0K€25.0K0%5%10%15%20%25%customers who leaveas now €15.0K€25.0K14%

If every customer stays: €25,000 a month instead of €15,000.

It pays off as long as fewer than 14.3% of customers leave. If more leave, profit falls below today’s.

The markup sets this limit. At a 13.6% markup, €12 of every €100 of revenue is left after costs. The more is left, the fewer customers you can lose.

Use the left and right arrows to step through the share of customers.

What 1% on each lever gives

LeverYoursOn average
Price 1% higher+33.3%+11.1%
Cost of a sale 1% lower+29.3%+7.8%
1% more sales+4%+3.3%
Fixed costs 1% lower+3%+2.3%

The price gives more than any other lever: a higher price stays with you in full, while more sales bring their costs. Yours: from your numbers, all else equal. On average: 2,463 companies in the McKinsey study (Marn and Rosiello, Harvard Business Review, 1992).

Other levers: conversion, the cost of a sale, fixed costs
Negative if you buy or subcontract for less.

These are the numbers of a made-up general contractor, an example. Replace them with yours and the result updates as you type.

This month

Revenue a month€500,000
Profit a month€15,000
After the loan payment€9,000

Of every €100 of revenue, €12 is left after the cost of the sale. To cover fixed costs you need 0.25 sales a month; you have 0.33.

Cash in the bank by month

with the changesas it is
0€200.0K€400.0K€600.0K€800.0KnowNovDecJan2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct€618.0K€518.0K

Use the left and right arrows to step through the months.

Table by month
MonthCash as it isCash with the changesProfit with the changesEvents
November 2026€419,000€419,000€25,000
December 2026€428,000€428,000€25,000
January 2027€437,000€447,000€25,000
February 2027€446,000€466,000€25,000
March 2027€455,000€485,000€25,000
April 2027€464,000€504,000€25,000
May 2027€473,000€523,000€25,000
June 2027€482,000€542,000€25,000
July 2027€491,000€561,000€25,000
August 2027€500,000€580,000€25,000
September 2027€509,000€599,000€25,000
October 2027€518,000€618,000€25,000

With the changes

+€10,000 a month

Profit a month: €15,000 now and €25,000 with the changes, if you keep the same customers. Over 12 months that is +€120,000.

Revenue a month
€500,000 → €510,000
Sales a month
0.33 → 0.33
At a price +2% you can lose
up to 14.3% of customers

Nobody knows in advance how many customers will actually leave. Test the new price on new customers or one segment and compare with the limit.

Profit = revenue − the cost of sales − fixed costs. Cash also reflects payment delays, loans and one-off events.

About the calculation

What we calculate
Profit and cash by month for a year ahead, two years for growth: as it is and with the changes you chose. How many customers a new price can lose. And what 1% on each lever gives, beside the average of 2,463 companies in a McKinsey study.
Assumptions
The numbers are linked: revenue a year is sales a month times the average sale times 12; sales are leads times the share who buy; profit is monthly revenue less the cost of sales (set by the markup) and fixed costs. The model never changes your numbers. It works out the others from yours and estimates what is missing for such a business: the average sale grows more slowly than revenue, costs and cash in proportion to it. If your numbers do not add up, the model shows where and counts the money from the revenue until you choose which number to recalculate. It always counts profit itself, even when it comes out negative. All figures are monthly averages without VAT or tax; with subscriptions clients accumulate and some leave every month. New leads cost money, and the model hires once sales outgrow the team. Revenue arrives after the payment delay, costs are paid in the month. Seasonality is not modelled.
What the result means
A rough picture: the order of magnitude and the main lever. The gap between the lines shows what a change does to cash, not only to profit: growth often dips the cash first.
What to check next
The model does not guess how many customers a new price loses: it shows the limit beyond which the price stops paying off. Test the real reaction, the price of a lead and how many sales one person handles with a small step before changing everything at once.

How to read the model

As an example the page opens on a made-up general contractor: “Construction”, €6,000,000 a year, three sites. Of every €100 of revenue, €12 is left after subcontractors, materials and plant (a markup of about 13.6%); fixed costs are €45,000 a month, profit €15,000 a month. A price 2% higher with the same work gives €25,000; with 10% less work, €18,000. The new price stops paying off if the work falls by about 14%. It is the same month as in the price, volume and profit calculator.

Profit and cash are not the same. If customers pay later or you grow, the balance can dip while profit rises. That is why the chart shows cash, not profit. For a contractor this shows at once: the client pays a certificate after 60 days, while subcontractors and materials are paid in the month. Double the tenders over a year in the example and profit rises, yet the cash runs out in the eighth month.